Pipe Failure Probabilities of Water Distribution Systems

Abstract

In this paper, we will describe two methods so-called Poisson method and Generic Expectation Function (GEF)
method for using to find pipe failure probabilities of water distribution systems which implicitly designed by
engineers. In order to develop GEF method using means and coefficients of variation of input random
variables through employing probability distribution such as normal distribution, is adopted. In this paper, 9
water distribution systems which are located in Terengganu, Malaysia and 1 hypothetical water distribution
system, have been used for illustrating these mentioned both methods from which the comparison can be
discussed. Besides that, hydraulic simulation software, EPANET has been applied to get the input variables for
each project. Failure probability of each pipe is focused on failure probability of pipe to fulfil the demand
denoted by PA and also pipe replacement probability denoted by PB.