Dengue Cases Prediction in Kupang

Titik Respati, Wanti Wanti, Ricvan Dana Nindrea

Abstract


The pandemic of coronavirus (COVID-19) causes another infectious disease such as dengue is neglected in Indonesia. Since the majority of resources, both human and capital, are focusing more on COVID-19, it is still essential to also manage dengue as it is still becoming a threat to the community. This study aims to predict the number of cases of dengue in Kupang, East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. This study area is in Kupang city, East Nusa Tenggara province, Indonesia. Data regarding monthly dengue reported cases by months from January 2010–December 2019 in Kupang city was collected to describe the temporal patterns of dengue cases. The Box-Jenkins approach is used to fit the auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. This model will predict monthly dengue cases for the year 2020 (12 months). Data analyzed using the Minitab program version 18.0. This study shows that seasonality was an essential component for Kupang city, which performed an exploratory analysis of dengue incidence (ln data) for 2010–2019. The linear trend model shows the prediction of dengue cases in 2020 was Yt=36.9−0.131 × t. The forecast tells that dengue will remain high for the whole year. Maintaining a clean environment, reduction of breeding sites, and other protective measurements against dengue transmission are significant to perform.

 

PREDIKSI KASUS DEMAM BERDARAH DENGUE DI KUPANG

Pandemi virus corona (COVID-19) mengakibatkan penyakit menular lain seperti dengue terbengkalai di Indonesia karena mayoritas sumber daya, baik manusia maupun permodalan, lebih berfokus pada COVID-19, sedangkan penanggulangan demam berdarah dengue (DBD) masih menjadi hal yang penting karena masih menjadi ancaman bagi masyarakat. Penelitian ini bertujuan memprediksi jumlah kasus DBD di Kupang, Nusa Tenggara Timur, Indonesia. Wilayah studi ini berada di Kota Kupang, Provinsi Nusa Tenggara Timur, Indonesia. Data bulanan kasus DBD yang dilaporkan per bulan dari Januari 2010–Desember 2019 di Kota Kupang dikumpulkan untuk menggambarkan pola temporal kasus DBD. Pendekatan Box-Jenkins digunakan untuk menyesuaikan model auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). Model ini akan memprediksi kasus DBD bulanan untuk tahun 2020 (12 bulan). Data dianalisis menggunakan program Minitab versi 18.0. Studi ini menunjukkan bahwa musim merupakan komponen penting bagi Kota Kupang yang melakukan analisis eksplorasi kejadian DBD (dalam data) untuk tahun 2010–2019. Model tren linier menunjukkan prediksi kasus DBD tahun 2020 adalah Yt=36.9−0.131 × t yang memperkirakan DBD akan tetap tinggi sepanjang tahun. Menjaga kebersihan lingkungan, mengurangi tempat berkembang biak, dan tindakan perlindungan lainnya terhadap penularan DBD penting dilakukan.


Keywords


COVID-19; DBD; dengue; prediction; prediksi

Full Text:

PDF

References


Direktorat Pencegahan dan Pengendalian Penyakit Kementerian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia. Pedoman pencegahan dan pengendalian coronavirus disease (COVID-19). 4th revision [Internet]. Jakarta: Kementerian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia; 2020 March 27 [cited 2020 July 15]. Available from: https://infeksiemerging.kemkes.go.id/download/REV-04_Pedoman_P2_COVID-19__27_Maret2020_TTD1.pdf.

Sutrisno E. Tak kesampingkan dengue karena corona [Internet]. Jakarta: Indonesia go id; 2020 March 22 [cited 2020 June 16]. Available from: https://indonesia.go.id/kategori/indonesia-dalam-angka/1731/tak-kesampingkan-dengue-karena-corona.

Kementerian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia. Hingga Juli, kasus DBD di Indonesia capai 71 ribu [Internet]. Jakarta: Kementerian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia; 2020 July 9 [cited 2020 July 26]. Available from: https://www.kemkes.go.id/article/view/20070900004/hingga-juli-kasus-dbd-di-indonesia-capai-71-ribu.html.

Septianto B. Angka kematian akibat DBD di NTT mencapai 43 orang [Internet]. Jakarta: Tirto id; 2020 March 18 [cited 2020 July 28]. Available from: https://tirto.id/angka-kematian-akibat-dbd-di-ntt-mencapai-43-orang-eFZu.

Edillo F, Madarieta S. Trends of dengue infections (1997–2008) in Cebu province, Philippines. Dengue Bull. 2012;36:37–49.

de Jong W, Rusli M, Bhoelan S, Rohde S, Rantam FA, Noeryoto PA, et al. Endemic and emerging acute virus infections in Indonesia: an overview of the past decade and implications for the future. Crit Rev Microbiol. 2018;44(4):487–503.

Chen N, Zhou M, Dong X, Qu J, Gong F, Han Y, et al. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study. Lancet. 2020;395(10223):507–13.

Arunachalam N, Tyagi BK, Samuel M, Krishnamoorthi R, Manavalan R, Tewari SC, et al. Community-based control of Aedes aegypti by adoption of eco-health methods in Chennai City, India. Pathog Glob Health. 2012;106(8):488–96.

Wanti, Yudhastuti R, Notobroto HB, Subekti S, Ekawati C, Agustina. Container characteristics and dengue hemorrhagic fever incidence. Int J Public Health Sci. 2019;8(3):314–9.

Wanti, Yudhastuti R, Notobroto HB, Subekti S, Sila O, Kristina RH, et al. Dengue hemorrhagic fever and house conditions in Kupang city, East Nusa Tenggara province. Kesmas. 2019;13(4):176–81.

Respati T, Feriandi Y. Breeding places of mosquito larvae and pupae in Bandung city. J Phys Conf Ser. 2020;1469:012119.

Wai KT, Arunachalam N, Tana S, Espino F, Kittayapong P, Abeyewickreme W, et al. Estimating dengue vector abundance in the wet and dry season: implications for targeted vector control in urban and peri-urban Asia. Pathog Glob Health. 2012;106(8):436–45.

Respati T, Raksanagara A. Larvae and pupae in Bandung city: can they be the indicators of dengue outbreak? In: Abdullah AG, Widiaty I, Abdullah CU, editors. Medical Technology and Environmental Health: Proceedings of the Medicine and Global Health Research Symposium (MoRes 2019); 2019 October 22–23; Bandung, Indonesia. Leiden: CRC Press/Balkema; 2020. p. 332–7.

Respati T, Raksanagara A, Wangsaputra R. Basic sanitation: is it an important factor in dengue transmission? In: Abdullah AG, Widiaty I, Abdullah CU, editors. Medical Technology and Environmental Health: Proceedings of the Medicine and Global Health Research Symposium (MoRes 2019); 2019 October 22–23; Bandung, Indonesia. Leiden: CRC Press/Balkema; 2020. p. 270–3.

Luz PM, Vanni T, Medlock J, Paltiel AD, Galvani AP. Dengue vector control strategies in an urban setting: an economic modelling assessment. Lancet. 2011;377(9778):1673–80.

Stahl HC, Butenschoen VM, Tran HT, Gozzer E, Skewes R, Mahendradhata Y, et al. Cost of dengue outbreaks: literature review and country case studies. BMC Public Health. 2013;13:1048.

Respati T, Feriandi Y, Ndoen E, Raksanegara A, Djuhaeni H, Sofyan A, et al. A qualitative ecohealth model of dengue fever (DF) in Bandung, Indonesia. Int J Trop Dis. 2018;1(1):008.

Toledo ME, Baly A, Vanlerberghe V, Rodríguez M, Benitez JR, Duvergel J, et al. The unbearable lightness of technocratic efforts at dengue control. Trop Med Int Heal. 2008;13(5):728–36.

Eisen L, Coleman M, Lozano-Fuentes S, McEachen N, Orlans M, Coleman M. Multi-disease data management system platform for vector-borne diseases. PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2011;5(3):e1016.

Zeng W, Halasa-Rappel YA, Baurin N, Coudeville L, Shepard DS. Cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in ten endemic countries. Vaccine. 2018;36(3):413–20.

Direktorat Jenderal Pengendalian Penyakit dan Penyehatan Lingkungan, Kementerian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia. Pedoman pencegahan dan pengendalian demam berdarah dengue di Indonesia [Internet]. Jakarta: Direktorat Jenderal Pengendalian Penyakit dan Penyehatan Lingkungan, Kementerian Kesehatan Republik Indonesia; 2017 [cited 2020 June 28]. Available from: http://kesmas-id.com/download/pedoman-pencegahan-pengendalian-dbd-di-indonesia-2017/?wpdmdl=23036&refresh=6137147675aad1630999670.

Balasubramanian R, Anukumar B, Nikhil TL. Stegomyia indices of Aedes mosquito infestation and container productivity in Alappuzha district Kerala. Int J Mosq Res. 2015;2(2):14–8.

Tana S, Abeyewickreme W, Arunachalam N, Espino F, Kittayapong P, Wai K, et al. Eco-bio-social research on dengue in Asia: general principles and a case study from Indonesia. In: Charron DF, editor. Ecohealth research in practice: innovative applications of an ecosystem approach to health. Ottawa: International Development Research Centre; 2012. p. 173–84.

Respati T, Wanti W, Nindrea RD. Prediction of dengue cases in Kupang, East Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. Preprints (Basel) [Internet]. 2020 April 30 [cited 2020 July 30];2020:0539. Available from: https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202004.0539.v1.




DOI: https://doi.org/10.29313/gmhc.v8i3.6727

pISSN 2301-9123 | eISSN 2460-5441


Visitor since 19 October 2016: 


Free counters!


Global Medical and Health Communication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.